Owenyo, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

505
FXUS65 KVEF 060823
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
123 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue
throughout the week as a high-pressure ridge remains over the
southwest. Temperatures will be near or exceed 100 degrees today
and tomorrow in many lower elevation areas, but readings should
gradually diminish as the week progresses and the ridge weakens. A
more pronounced cooling trend is possible by next weekend as a
trough of low pressure approaches the west coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today and Monday.

Little change in the forecast is expected today as the ridge of
high pressure remains firmly in place across the southwest.
Temperatures are expected to reach the century mark once again at
Harry Reid airport today, which not only would break the daily
record of 98 degrees but would also extend the record for the
latest 100-degree day and the record for the number of 100-degree-
plus days in a calendar year. On Monday, a short wave trough will
approach the Great Basin, allowing 500MB heights to fall slightly.
This should translate to high temperatures being a degree to two
cooler, which is also shown in the NBM probabilities with only a
10 percent chance of temperatures of 100 degrees or greater at
KLAS. This approaching shortwave may also cause a few isolated
areas of virga over the Sierra this afternoon and evening, as well
as isolated showers over the Sierra and White Mountains in
northern Inyo and Esmeralda counties Monday afternoon and evening.


.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday

By Tuesday the upper-level shortwave trough will have begun to
move inland near the California-Mexico Border. As this disturbance
passes by to our south, another shortwave trough will zip through
the Pacific Northwest, contributing to the deamplification of the
upper- level ridge and helping displace it to the east. While
this will help to take the edge off the heat, it won`t be enough
to get us in the neighborhood of normal temperatures for early
October.

Forecast confidence decreases as we head into the weekend due to
uncertainty regarding an incoming trough. Right now ensembles show
some flavor of a trough moving impacting the Western US over the
weekend. However, there remain major discrepancies regarding when
the trough will move through, how fast it will move through the
area, and how strong it will be. All of these factors will play a
role in how much we cool down and how long these cooler temperatures
will stick around. Current guidance has temperatures getting within
a few degrees of normal over the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light winds will continue through
the morning before turning to the northeast by 17Z. Winds will
remain from the east through the afternoon before turning to the
southwest after sunset. Sustained wind speeds are expected to
remain less than 8 knots through the TAF period, and there is only
a 20% chance of seeing a random gust to 15 knots during the
afternoon (20Z to 01Z). VFR conditions can be expected throughout
the period, with only a FEW to SCT clouds around 15kft AGL
expected during the afternoon and evening.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Winds will be light and diurnal at most regional TAF
sites today, with speeds generally remaining 10 knots or less. The
Colorado River Valley sites will be the exception, where northerly
winds with gusts to 20kts are expected during the late morning and
early afternoon (16Z to 21Z). Isolated areas of virga or showers
are also possible over the Sierra and White Mountains in northern
Inyo County this afternoon and early evening, and these will be
capable of producing localized gusty winds that may impact KBIH.
Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected throughout the period,
with only a FEW to SCT clouds around 15kft AGL expected during the
afternoon and evening, mainly along the Sierra and across southern
Nevada.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Planz
LONG TERM...Stessman
AVIATION...Planz

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